November 20, 2020

I have had a revealing and interesting journey reading and digesting as best I can Being Wrong by Kathryn Schulz. Since my November 12, 2020 blog I'll continue my understanding of wrongology. Should women have the right to vote? What a bizarre question yet pertinent to understanding how our beliefs can be right in one era and then wrong later. For a good film about the Switerland women's movement to obtain the vote finally for national voting in 1971 watch The Divine Order 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/26/movies/the-divine-order-review.html

However the cantons Appenzell Ausserhoden and Innerrhoden did not extend this right until 1989. The men voted through a vote called in person at a building in town with everyone to see who voted in which way. One hold out country so far for the right to vote for women is Saudi Arabia. So our society has an influence on our beliefs determining what is right and wrong. So blind adherence to custom and influence of popular opinion, the tendency to cover up ignorance and the power of authority are now less influential in the Swiss case. If more people believe something the tendency is for them to know their beliefs are correct. But philosophers such as Roger Bacon and John Locke argued against second hand knowledge. However, to think for oneself is impossible also. We all rely on information we have been exposed to from other sources besides ourselves. These other sources come from witnesses who we then accept (or reject). We are subject to the beliefs of our communities and we choose in part our community in which we believe. We have homophily. We like to associate with people like us. We hold memberships with a community of believers. Remember the experiments of Solomon Asch who showed how being in a group can change how we judge the length of a line. The two cantons in Switzerland have people related to the protestant catholic conflicts of 1597. The motto of the two cantons translated is "As If Time Had Stood Still". The Swiss tradition of voting included bringing a weapon to the voting time and being prepared for military duty as a man. To allow women to vote would go against this male tradition so was resisted. So a more closed community support commonly held beliefs and traditions, they shield us from disagreement from outsiders, they support our ignoring outside influences, and they squash disagreement from within. Emily Post advised "Try to do and say those things only which will be agreeable to others." But to follow this advice keeps you ignorant. One of the best ways to find out if you are wrong is to state your beliefs in public. But the caveat is if your in a closed group of likeminded adherents that's difficult. If you attempt this in this social group you tend to drive the group members to believe even more certainly they are right and you are wrong. Group think the becomes entrenched. The Bay of Pigs, Vietnam, Iraq war had such beliefs that now we see are wrong and led to wars and conflicts that could have been avoided. Fortunately, in jury trial in U.S.A. if one person does not agree with the verdict the defendant goes free. In some societies however might makes right. In these societies you can be imprisoned, tortured, killed, banished, ostracized, etc. for differing in your beliefs. So in these societies community loyalty can lead to serious consequences for the person with differing beliefs. 

"Properly speaking, there is no certainty; there are only people who are certain" Charles Renouvier, Essais De Critique Generale. Zealots are certain they are right and our history includes many examples of how zealots have caused terrible suffering and death (Pol Pat, Judas of Galilee, Nazi "Final Solution", Stalin's purges, etc). So in a zealot group to hold a contrary view means you're evil and deserve bad consequences. So in these groups empathy strivels and imagination is stifled. But maybe certainty of belief can be defended with caveats. William James gives an example of the hiker who must leap across a crevasse to continue his journey. If full of doubts about his abilities and his judgment of distance he becomes paralyzed but if certain of his abilities he makes the crossing. Spinoza opined that we tend to believe what we're told first but doubt then can be experienced later. In a recent  experiments subjects were presented with false information and later asked about their beliefs. Some of the subjects were interrupted after being presented with the false information while others not. Those interrupted tended to believe more in the false information (p.168). To doubt presents us with uncomfortable feelings while having certainty feels better. Even in politics, if our leaders lead us to a course of action that turns out very problematic his constituents do not want to hear him say he had doubts but rather believe that his course of actions were certainly right. In politics, staying the course being certain is preferable to having doubts and "waffling". So on the one hand if we are certain we feel better but on the other hand we can be wrong. I have discussed  the research in cognitive dissonance in another post. Leon Festinger studies the housewife (pseudonym) Marian Keech in the 1950's who said she was in touch with a Jesus like entity from outer space who said that the world would be destroyed in a flood. Even after the prediction with no flood or flying saucers many people continued to believe her tale.  

Now the subject of being wrong deserves it's due. We are prone to forget our strongly held beliefs that have changed not remembering so we are not wrongs. Schulz gives examples of research to back up this assertion. We have a tendency to say that our previous beliefs were the same as what we hold today when the facts belie this. Scientist do the same regarding their own pet theories (Thomas Kuhn). New theories do not just go away they become supplanted when a better theory turns up that fits the facts better. Well, how about holding onto a belief that some can be described as a servile conformist and then changing so now out of this very closed society of believers you have a different life course. There are many example of this including people who grew up in very evangelical conformist surroundings finally leaving and now leading totally different (and freer) lives. A fictionalized version to me of this conversion in belief is The Poisonwood Bible by Barbara Kingsolver. Finding oneself wrong about this type of belief is very wrenching and emotional turmoil often occurs while that person is troubled with being wrong and having to leave a group and venture out into the world. This is wrongfulness plus. So being heavily invested in a belief makes it very difficult for us to recognize error and wrongfulness. We have many examples of less invested beliefs such as misidentifying our car and using our key to another vehicle or refusing to follow advise on directions to travel to our destination. Then there is the power of sunk costs. If we purchase a vehicle that is "junk" for a good price then spend money on new tires, then having to fix the brakes, then the ignition, and something else goes wrong we tend to believe that our investment in the vehicle was right and we plow more money into repairs. The same with our beliefs. We've invested some of our life believing whatever and to change is difficult because of sunken costs. Life position can make a difference. As an adolescent with little experience we are more certain of the correctness of our beliefs that when we are much older, have experiences showing that our beliefs can change and we can be in error and wrong.     

Being Really wrong. October 22, 1844 on the east coast of U.S.A. the followers of William Miller awaited the second coming of Jesus Christ and the rapture. Many of these hundreds of thousand had sold all their worldly possessions, if farmers they harvested and slaughtered or sold their livestock,  and awaited their ascension to heaven. After that day some newer predictions did not pan out and the groups disbanded except certain ones morphed into other present day groups such as the Seventh Day Adventists. This was called the Great Disappointment. Other examples include the person who realizes he/she is gay causing much cognitive dissonance until finally "coming out".  So you can stay in denial and attempt to follow the belief that seems a failure or you can accept that you were wrong and accept a different belief about yourself and the world. So Hiram Edson changed his view modified the Millerite view believing that Jesus had entered heaven and had work to do so those on earth needed to bide their time. This doctrine of the Investigative Judgment was accepted by Ellen and James White who then founded the Seventh Day Adventist movement. So if having a strong belief not coming true we may use the time defense strategy. We were right in the belief just not the time frame. There's the near miss strategy in which we rationalize by saying that we missed a small detail that will correct this belief. Blaise Pascal had the better safe than sorry strategy related to belief in christianity.  Miller wrote An Apology and Defense in which he refused to accept the new timelines for Jesus return but insisted that he believed that some day this would happen. 

Wrongology associated with denial and acceptance is our next subject. Schultz describes the example of Penny Beerntsen who was raped in the sand dunes of lake Michigan. She was presented with pictures of possible suspects after being rescued after her brutal encounter. She was supported by the police in her choice and a man was convicted. She wound up working in the prisons as a volunteer with violent offenders. She persisted in her belief that her attacker was convicted properly but then was given information which included DNA confirmation that someone else had attacked her. Her emotional turmoil of first denial then acceptance included finally meeting the man who was wrongfully incarcerated for a number of years and apologizing. However, Schultz gives examples of prosecutors and police who in this and other cases refused to accept overwhelming evidence that they were wrong. In 19025 Franz von Liszt a professor in criminology in Berlin had in his class an argument between two students in which one pulled a gun out against the other and the professor intervened. A shot was fired. The witness students provided written evidence of the events. The whole episode was staged. The results were that the best witness got more than 25% of the facts wrong. The worst was 80%. The Innocents project has come up with a number of examples in which eye witness statements were used to convict but later DNA evidence exonerated the convicted. So Elizabeth Kubler-Ross writing about grief can be applied to the denial phases of being wrong. In politics Barbara Tuchman the historian wrote "Wooden-headedness, the source of self deception, is a factor that plays a remarkably large role in government. It consists of assessing a situation in terms of preconceived fixed notions while ignoring contrary signs. It is acting according to wish while not allowing oneself to be deflected by the facts. Trump's denial of our recent election results is a good example also. We can deceive ourselves with the evidence presented but denied such as the infidelity of a partner. In fiction In Search of Lost TIme by Marcel Proust is a good example.

Is there a connection between some types of wrongfulness and the loss of love?  Children learn early to read their caretakers emotions and usually do a good job of it. We can extrapolated from our own emotional experiences to understand another who appears to have a similar circumstance. Yet our ability to appreciate and understand another is fraught with difficulties and biases. We often get things wrong. Our existential separation from each other can be frightening and is mostly avoided through believing myths or falsehoods making us feel better but leading to error and being wrong. "You don't know me but I know you". Yet we believe in the timelessness of love until maybe not. When we're colossally out of love it feels devastating so we tend to avoid this so we are not wrong in error. Yet after the first blush of love there is a differentiating of ourselves and our partner who is different is some respects from us.The therapist in this field counsel those experiencing difficulties with each other to listen to each other carefully rather than reacting. It is hard for us to accept that our opinions, convictions, attitudes and way of living are different than my partners. By acknowledging this divide we have to face our existential aloneness in this world. Claiborne Paul Ellis and Ann Atwater met under a cloud of racism, anger, and violent confrontations in 1968. He was a Klansman elder and she a hard working black mother of children, Both were underprivileged having children and struggling in a hostile environment. The story on how they came to respect and care about each others worlds and issues was captured in the book Best of Enemies by Osha Davidson. They came to terms with world views about each other that were very wrong and learned then to change their beliefs. Shultz characterizes these as conversion experiences. These examples of being very wrong acknowledging this and changing one's world view. But the process of conversion requires us to feel alienated from ourselves and facing very uncomfortable feelings. Yet also we can then realize that there is more to us and the world than we had realized so we can relinquish once cherished beliefs. We can be wrong. However, if we deny this process we get stuck changing but not changing. Carl Jung wrote that when we hold onto a cherished belief with passion that unconsciously we are have doubts about this belief. So "In the optimistic model of wrongness, error is not a sign that our past selves were failures or falsehoods. Instead, it is one of those forces, like sap and sunlight, that imperceptibly helps another organic entity- us human beings-to grow up." (p289)

So developmentally as children we are wrong very often. But we learn from our errors.  As adults we sometimes pursue activities to experience being wrong. Sometimes our travel adventure incorporate these experiences which we enjoy. Psychotherapy can be viewed as we can correct our errors of self deception.  So being wrong has some very positive benefits to us. C.P. Ellis said later "since I've changed, I've set down and listened to tapes of Martin Luther King. I listened to it and tears come to my eyes, 'cause I know what he's sayin' now. I know what's happenin'." (p.292)    

So finally the chapter called The Paradox of Error. 2008 a patient was wheeled into Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston. After the surgery when  the patient was awake  she asked why the wrong side of her body was in bandages. The hospital was working on error avoidance procedures. They published this error and immediately set to work to correct their protocols developed to prevent this type of mistake. The research showed that since medical facilities have instituted these procedures errors have fallen and money spent on errors have fallen. Research also highlighted how medical personnel do not listen to their patients, make wrong assumptions, miss vital information, and misdiagnosis occur. In the field of manufacturing and corporation functioning the Six Sigma quality control system has resulted in manufacturing errors from occuring. To achieve the results from these two fields all people involved in the process needs to have a say and give feedback Management by fact rather than opinion and assumption. 

Children start out with black and white yes and no. At the age of five maybe comes to play. So instead of us expressing certainty or wrongfulness there's a maybe its this or that way. I could be wrong but here's my opinion or roughly speaking, off the top of my head, or don't quote me on this all methods to allow error but express our opinions. Similarly our democracy as such has two main parties that have to tolerate each others differing opinions while allowing free speech. How to be right and wrong in this system present formidable challenges. We learn from our errors and we need to have our convictions. 

Schulz discusses error and convictions in being right in light of comedy and art. The dadaist movement in art "Let's try for once not to be right". Tristan Tzara p.328) In art it's more about what we don't know. In fictions we enjoy the not knowing and adventure.  We even like getting lost and confused. So art let's us live in other people's inner world with their thoughts and experiences. We can view things from another' eyes. We can be wrong but relish our being human and adding to the mix of reality knowing that our errors can assist in better knowledge of what exists outside of us. A view of objective reality of our present existence can bring us down and make us depressed.Climate change, political instability, poverty, sickness and death related to a pandemic, conflict  here and abroad, etc. We could use some self deception delude ourselves somewhat like Don Quixote. We are more optimistic than the world seems to indicate but maybe we need that but also recognize that being wrong is not so bad. 

Leonard     

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